DeSantis Dominates FL Gov Advertising

Photo Gage Skidmore/Flickr

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) – September 22, 2022 – As the traditional general election period of the 2022 midterms kicks into gear, Republican incumbent Ron DeSantis has a commanding lead over his Democratic opponent, Charlie Crist, in both television ads aired and online ad spending, according to a new report from the Wesleyan Media Project. Over the past two weeks, DeSantis has held a 15:1 lead over Crist in broadcast advertising totals (over 13,000 airings compared to just 881 for Crist). This lopsided advertising is also reflected online.  DeSantis has $470,000 in spending on Facebook and Google over the past two weeks, compared to just $45,000 for Crist.

“It’s pretty stunning to see such a lopsided ad race at this phase of the campaign,” said Mike Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “DeSantis has had a consistent lead in the polling, and it will be nearly impossible for Crist to make up the difference in the context of such a massive imbalance in ad spending.”

The Texas gubernatorial race edges out Florida for the highest volume of television advertising over the past two weeks, and incumbent Republican Greg Abbott leads his Democratic opponent, Beto O’Rourke, in the volume of television ad airings, but the difference is roughly 3,000 airings compared to a difference of over 12,000 airings in Florida. Notably the pro-O’Rourke group, Coulda Been Worse, hit the airwaves on September 9 and has accounted for nearly half of pro-O’Rourke advertising in the state in the last two weeks.

In the hotly-contested Wisconsin gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Tony Evers and his Republican challenger, Tim Michels, Evers holds the advantage (6,130 airings compared to 4,065). Outside groups have been active on both sides, but they make up a greater proportion (roughly two-thirds) of pro-Michels advertising.

Gubernatorial races in Georgia and Oregon round out the top five, with 9,854 airings in Georgia over the past two weeks and 9,353 in Oregon. In both cases, Democrats hold slight advantages, with Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams having a 2,116 airing advantage over Republican incumbent Brian Kemp in Georgia, and Democrat Tina Kotek holding a slimmer lead of 1,152 ad airings over Republican Christine Drazan in the race for Oregon’s open seat. A third-party candidate in Oregon, Betsy Johnson, has out-advertised both the pro-Democratic and pro-Republican advertisers, with 3,609 ads in the last two weeks, all sponsored by her own campaign.

The race for Kansas, Michigan and Nevada governor all clock in at more than five thousand airings but have very different competitive environments. The Kansas gubernatorial race between incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly and Republican challenger Derek Schmidt is pretty even in advertising while Michigan incumbent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is mostly alone on the airwaves with challenger Tudor Dixon having only 19 airings—all from an outside group. In Nevada, incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak has been out-aired by over 1,300 ads promoting Republican Joe Lombardo, who is receiving support from outside groups.

In the open seat Pennsylvania race, Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro also has the airwaves to himself recently, as his opponent Doug Mastriano has not sponsored any ads on broadcast television.

The Wisconsin Senate race has seen the most broadcast advertising in the last two weeks, with over 14,000 spots.  There is almost perfect partisan balance in advertising, with Democratic Mandela Barnes and his allies just edging out Ron Johnson and his allies by just 184 airings.

“The races for Governor and U.S. Senate in Wisconsin, both very competitive races, are driving up ad volumes in the state,” said Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project.  “Across both statewide races, Wisconsin has featured over 24,000 ad airings on broadcast television in the previous two weeks.”

In Pennsylvania, in the race between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz, the ad balance is just slightly in Oz’s favor.  Oz has a 210 airing advantage out of over 11,000 airings in the previous two weeks.  This is also true in Ohio, in the open seat race between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan, and in New Hampshire, though a competitive GOP primary wrapped up on September 13, with Don Bolduc just edging out Chuck Morse.

In the Georgie Senate race between incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker, pro-Warnock ads are far more abundant, with Warnock holding a 2,600 spot advantage on broadcast television. This is true also in the Arizona Senate contest between incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters, with Kelly and allies sponsoring over 7,600 ads to his opponent’s 1,900.  Democrats have ad advantages also in Nevada (where the incumbent Democrat is running) and North Carolina (which is an open seat).

Notably, in Florida, ads favoring incumbent Republican Marco Rubio outnumber those favoring his Democratic opponent, Val Demings, with 779 more pro-Rubio ads in the previous two weeks.  There is also a third-party candidate of note in the Utah Senate race, Evan McMullin.  In fact, no Democratic candidate is on the ballot and therefore there are no ads coded as such in Table 2.  McMullin has sponsored 564 spots in the two weeks, far behind incumbent Mike Lee and his allies, who have sponsored over 1,300.

The Wesleyan Media Project is also tracking ad spending in Senate races for a wider set of venues beyond broadcast television.  This includes satellite and local cable TV along with digital advertising on Facebook and Google.  Table 3 reports those totals for the past two weeks, focusing on candidate spending only (including any coordinated spending with the political parties).  The top six candidate spenders were Democrats.

Senator Raphael Warnock is the top candidate spender, with a little over $5 million in spending since September 5.  About 60 percent of that spending ($2.98 million) was on broadcast television, with another $1.22 million on other television and radio.  Digital ads on Facebook and Google constitute 16.7 percent of Warnock’s spending over the past two weeks.

Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona is second on the list, with $4.74 million in ad spending, followed by John Fetterman in Pennsylvania.  Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, seventh on the list, spent just under $3 million in the past three weeks, making him the top-spending Republican candidate.

Some candidates in competitive Senate races are notable for their relative lack of ad spending, including J.D. Vance in Ohio (about $900,000 in ad spending), Ted Budd in North Carolina ($580,000 in ad spending) and Blake Masters in Arizona ($80,000 in ad spending).

The variation in digital spending is also compelling, especially for top spenders.  While Warnock and Fetterman have committed about 16 percent of their ad spending to Facebook and Google ads in the past two weeks, Mark Kelly (6.3 percent), Marco Rubio (4.2 percent), and Ron Johnson (5.1 percent) have allocated far less to those platforms.

Taken as a whole, the numbers in these tables highlight that GOP Senate candidates are relying much more heavily on the support of outside groups. In Table 4, we show broadcast airings in Senate races by sponsor over the last two weeks, including party and group spending.  Senate Leadership Fund has invested heavily in recent weeks on behalf of Republicans in Senate races, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Nevada.  Of the 14 non-candidate sponsors in Table 4, ten are supporting Republicans.

Table 5 shows the number of ads aired in House races over the past two weeks.  Topping the list is California’s 22nd district, which has seen almost 9,000 ads since September 5.  Democrat Rudy Salas has benefitted from substantially more advertising than incumbent Republican David Valadao in this “tossup” race.  The WMP has also tracked heavy advertising in Michigan’s 7th congressional district, where Democrat Elissa Slotkin faces Republican Tom Barrett, and in Maine’s 2nd district, where Democrat Jared Golden faces Republican (and former incumbent) Bruce Poliquin.

The Las Vegas, Nevada, media market has seen more House, Senate and governor ads than any other media market over the past two weeks—over 9,000.  Not only is there a competitive Senate race in Nevada, but the race for governor is close, and the state has at least three somewhat competitive U.S. House races.  Milwaukee, Wisconsin, has seen 8,800 ad airings in the past two weeks, an equal number of ads for the state’s Senate and gubernatorial races.  Over 8,400 ads have aired in the Phoenix media market over the past two weeks, the bulk of them relating to Arizona’s U.S. Senate race.

In our prior release we noted that in the cycle-to-date through September 4, the tone of ads was comparatively more positive than in prior cycles.  But in the last two weeks, with general elections ramping up, the tone has shifted to more direct attacks on the opposing candidate. Indeed, the first two weeks of the general election in the 2022 midterms are breaking records in terms of the proportion of pure attack ads in both federal races and in gubernatorial races across the country.

Table 7 shows that more than half (nearly 55 percent) of all Senate ads are pure attacks compared to roughly four in ten in the 2018 midterms (41.7 percent). Much of the increase in negativity is being driven by pro-Republican advertising.  Sixty-two percent of pro-Republican ads in Senate races feature an attack, compared to just one in ten pro-Democratic ads.

Table 8 shows that the pattern in U.S. House advertising on television is similar, though rates of negativity are not as high as in the U.S. Senate. Roughly half of the 2022 U.S. House advertising in the last two weeks is a pure attack compared to only 31 percent in the 2018 midterms. Similar to the Senate, pro-Republican advertising is much more likely to be a pure attack (58 percent compared to 41 percent pure attacks for pro-Democratic ads).

Even gubernatorial ads are much more likely this cycle to be pure attacks compared to this same period in earlier midterms (see Table 9).  Fifty-one percent of gubernatorial ads in the past two weeks were attacks, compared to roughly 42 percent during the same two-week time period in 2014 and 2018.

“We’ve seen a notable turn toward the negative in the past two weeks,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project.  “The heavy involvement of groups in advertising in 2022 is certainly one factor explaining the negativity, but the high stakes this year—either party could control the House or Senate—are also contributing to a more negative campaign.”

Table 10 shows the percentage of negative (pure attack) advertising in each Senate race—and the percentage of those ads found in pro-Republican and pro-Democratic advertising.  More than three out of every four television advertisements in Alaska and Arizona are pure attack ads. In Alaska, most of the attacks has been from an outside group that has attacked incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski. In Arizona, attacks on both sides are prominent, but are occurring more often in pro-Democratic advertising (80 percent compared to 57 percent).

Television viewers in North Carolina, Nevada and Georgia have seen pure attacks in nearly two out of every three ads, and in each of these contests, pro-Republican attacks are greater in proportion than pro-Democratic ones.

Attacks in New Hampshire comprise 64 percent of airings, with pro-Democratic attacks being slightly more prominent than pro-Republican ones (67 percent compared to 60 percent). Wisconsin and Ohio have also seen more than 60 percent pure attack ads on television, but in both of these contests pro-Republican attacks are much greater than pro-Democratic ones. In Wisconsin in particular, 90 percent of the ads favoring incumbent Republican Ron Johnson have solely attacked Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes.

As Table 11 shows, five U.S. House races have seen solely attack ads over the past two weeks: Arizona’s 2nd district, Florida’s 13th district, Indiana’s 1st district, New York’s 19th district, and Texas’s 34th district. Connecticut’s 5th district has seen 88 percent attack while Texas’ 28th and Washington’s 8th are both over three quarters attack.

While pro-Republican advertising in the South Carolina governor’s race and pro-Democratic advertising in the New York governor’s race are solely responsible for putting their two states in the top two spots for most negative so far of the 2022 midterms, the Wisconsin gubernatorial contest, which ranks third at just under three quarters of all advertising being pure attack, features heavy attacks from both sides.

Over the past two weeks, public safety has been a prominent issue in U.S. Senate advertising with 27 percent of pro-Democratic ads mentioning the issue and 45 percent of pro-Republican ads talking about public safety.  Abortion is also a top issue in pro-Democratic Senate advertising, while the budget is the top issue in pro-Republican advertising.

Abortion is the top issue in pro-Democratic ads in the U.S. House, followed closely by healthcare and taxes.  Pro-Republican ads in the House, on the other hand, have emphasized the budget, the economy and inflation over the past two weeks.

Abortion is the most prominent issue mentioned in pro-Democratic gubernatorial ads over the past two weeks.  Just over half of these ads make reference to the issue.  Pro-Republican ads in gubernatorial races have focused on the budget and public safety, two issues that appear in over half of such ads.

For television ad totals, data reported here from Kantar/CMAG (unless otherwise specified) refer to broadcast television. All cost estimates for television are precisely that: estimates.

For Facebook ads, data come from the aggregate reports, which provide spending information for each page name and disclaimer combination. Totals in this report reflect spending between January 6, 2021, or September 3, 2022, and September 17, 2022. These totals are calculated by subtracting the reported cumulative spending (as reported by Facebook as the total spent since May 2018) for the September 17, 2022 report and subtracting the cumulative spending reported for January 5, 2021, or September 3, 2022.

In Table A (click here to download), we list the page names/disclaimer rows from the Facebook aggregate reports that we identified for this report. It is possible that we missed some spending from a Facebook page affiliated with a candidate or group. This is exacerbated by the absence of EIN or FEC identifiers in the Facebook reports.

For Google ads, we downloaded the weekly reports from the platform’s Transparency Report. The totals reflected in this release are current as of 9/20/22, the day on which we pulled the transparency report. Google only includes spending in federal and state races and only includes weekly totals but lists the sponsor’s EIN or FEC committee ID. Google spending is from the following time periods: January 6, 2021 or September 3, 2022 and September 17, 2022.

In Table B (click here to download), we list the advertiser name for all entities used in this report to calculate Google spending totals.

The Wesleyan Media Project provides real-time tracking and analysis of all political television advertising in an effort to increase transparency in elections. Housed in Wesleyan’s Quantitative Analysis Center – part of the Allbritton Center for the Study of Public Life – the Wesleyan Media Project is the successor to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which disbanded in 2009.  It is directed by Erika Franklin Fowler, professor of government at Wesleyan University, Michael M. Franz, professor of government at Bowdoin College and Travis N. Ridout, professor of political science at Washington State University. WMP personnel include Laura Baum (Associate Director), Breeze Floyd (Research Coordinator), Pavel Oleinikov (Associate Director, QAC), Markus Neumann (Post-Doctoral Fellow), and Jielu Yao (Post-Doctoral Fellow).

Data are provided by Kantar/CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.  The Wesleyan Media Project is partnering again this year with OpenSecrets, to provide added information on outside group disclosure and candidate status.

The Wesleyan Media Project’s digital advertising tracking is supported by the contributions of students in Delta Lab, an interdisciplinary research collaborative focusing on computationally-driven and innovative analyses and visualizations of media messaging.

Periodic releases of data will be posted on the project’s website and dispersed via Twitter @wesmediaproject. To be added to our email update list, click here.

For more information contact: media@wesleyan.edu.

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