Trump and Allies Launch Barrage of Negative Ads

Photo Gage Skidmore/flickr

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) August 29, 2024 – In recent weeks, former President Donald Trump and his interest group allies have ramped up their spending on broadcast television ads, on many days out-advertising Kamala Harris and her interest group allies. Figure 1 shows the volume of pro-Trump (in red) and pro-Harris (in blue) ads by day. In the last few weeks of July, in fact, Trump out-aired Harris by as many as 1,000 spots on some days. In the closing days of August, pro-Trump forces are again on the air with more ads than pro-Harris sponsors.

Numbers include broadcast television for all sponsors.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Vivvix CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

However, the campaigns are sponsoring very different types of ads, as Figure 2 shows. Since Biden dropped out of the race, 95 percent of pro-Trump ads—and 99 percent of pro-Trump ads in the past two weeks—were pure attack, meaning they focused entirely on attacking Kamala Harris. Indeed, as Trump has ramped up his broadcast advertising since President Biden dropped out of the race, he and his allies have almost exclusively focused on attacking Harris over promoting Trump’s policy agenda. Meanwhile, Harris and her allies have aired a mix of contrast and promotional spots, largely avoiding ads that solely attack Trump. Promotional spots, ones that tout Harris and her background, make up nearly 50 percent of pro-Harris ads since Biden dropped out and Harris became the presumptive nominee.

“Clearly, the Trump campaign is going for broke right now to define Kamala Harris, spending all of its dollars talking about her and not about Trump himself,” said Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “At the same time, the Harris campaign is working hard to tell voters who Harris is and what she is all about.”

Numbers include broadcast television for all sponsors.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Vivvix CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

We show in Table 1 the top issues mentioned by the most active television sponsors in the presidential race for the period between August 12 and August 26. On the Republican side, there seems to be a division of labor between Trump and his two most active allies, Preserve America PAC and Make America Great Again. The two groups remain focused on immigration and public safety, along with concerns about drug abuse. The Trump campaign itself, however, has focused over the last two weeks on the economy, inflation, jobs, and energy-related issues. Immigration appears in proportionately fewer of his ads compared to the two pro-Trump groups.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Harris has mentioned public safety and immigration in the majority of her ads, responding head-on to the major attack line against her to-date in the campaign. She has also addressed issues of drugs (typically fentanyl) and opioids in 2 of every 5 airings. The most active pro-Harris group, FF PAC, has focused on the issues of the economy and inflation, and to a lesser extent on public safety. Abortion appears in only 5 percent of Harris’s ads and 19 percent of FF PAC’s ads.

“It seems that the Democrats find some value in addressing the issues that Republicans want to make the centerpiece of their campaign against Kamala Harris,” said Michael Franz, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project. “Instead of a laser-like focus on issues more common to the Democratic playbook, they have launched Harris’s campaign with a bevy of ad airings on immigration, public safety, and concerns about drug abuse–generally promoting Harris’s record on these topics.”

Next, we show the top media markets with broadcast television ads since Biden dropped out on July 21 (Table 2). Trump has bigger ad advantages in battleground states in the South and Southwest, while Harris has the edge in media markets in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

“While the battleground consists of three Great Lakes states and four states in the South and West, Harris seems much more focused at this point in the campaign on the Midwest than Trump, while Trump, in general, is investing more than Harris in the Sunbelt,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project.

Figure 3 displays these data visually, showing Harris with an ad advantage in Wisconsin markets and many markets in Michigan and Pennsylvania. By contrast, Trump holds a healthy ad advantage in most markets in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.

Figures are from July 22, 2024 to August 25, 2024.
Numbers include broadcast television for all sponsors.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Vivvix CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Table 3 shows estimated broadcast ad spending in the presidential race since January 1 of 2023, inclusive of the primary phase of the election. All told, spending is at $483 million, with $148 million of that by candidates and $330 million by groups. Republican spending, owing to a primary race with multiple candidates, is $287 million compared to $196 million on the Democratic side.

Turning to airings, on the Democratic side, airings from Biden and Harris have far exceeded spots from supportive outside groups by nearly 3:1 (175,000 to 60,000). However, on the GOP side, there have been more ads from outside groups than from candidates.

We also considered spending by Trump and Harris on Google and Meta platforms, along with additional spending on local cable, satellite TV (referred to as addressable TV), and radio, to give a wider sense of the full scale of advertising spending in the period after President Biden dropped out of the race. We show these totals in Table 4, along with spending from some of the biggest outside group spenders in the race. (We exclude spending from some smaller spenders in the presidential race, so this table is not inconclusive of all advertising spending.)

In this more inclusive set of platforms, Harris has spent about $134 million since July 22, including $77 million on Meta and Google. That digital total amounts to 57 percent of her ad dollars over the last month. She has also spent $10 million on local cable ads to go along with $44 million in broadcast TV ad spending. In contrast, her biggest outside group supporter, FF PAC, has spent over $50 million in the last month, over 90 percent of that on broadcast spots.

The Trump campaign has spent just $11.5 million on Meta/Google and more than three times that total on broadcast and local cable ads. Make America Great Again has devoted more than $50 million to local broadcast and cable ads, but far less on digital ads (at least on Meta and Google properties). The same TV over digital preference is true for Preserve America PAC, the other big outside group supporting Trump.

In Figure 4, we show the number of airings in congressional races back to 2012. Ads in House races to-date are similar to the number in the 2022 campaign, and both years featured record totals of broadcast spots. This is largely a function of the small balance of power held by the Democrats in 2022 and by the Republicans this year. Control of the chamber will be determined by the outcome of a small number of very close races.

In the Senate, airings this cycle lag the 2020 and 2022 elections, but still total the third highest since 2012. Because Senate terms are 6-years, note the comparison of 2024 to 2018 and 2012, when the same states featured Senate elections. In that comparison of advertising for the same seats, 2024 has the highest ad total.

Figures are from January 1 of the off-year to August 25 of the election year.
Numbers include broadcast television for all sponsors.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Vivvix CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Table 5 shows spending in the full cycle to-date by party and sponsor type. And Table 6 shows the breakdown of spending in each Senate race along with the number of broadcast ad airings. Outside groups supporting Republican candidates—either in primary or general elections—have aired over 126,000 spots (nearly 44 percent of all advertising), just short of the 128,000 spots from Republican candidates. In contrast, Democratic candidates were far more active on TV than pro-Democratic groups, out-airing them 4 to 1. All told, in the cycle-to-date, broadcast television ads in Senate races have totaled over $320 million.

In terms of the number of ad airings with almost 200,000 to date, Montana’s Senate races has been by far the most intense this election season (see Table 6), though spending has been higher in Ohio, totaling almost $70 million. Groups have been particularly active in a number of contests, particularly West Virginia and Florida on the Democratic side and in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Utah on the Republican side.

Tables 7 and 8 repeat the analysis but for U.S. House campaigns. For House races, outside groups advocating for Democrats, in either primary or general election campaigns, have nearly matched the spot totals of Democratic candidates. All told, outside groups have sponsored 42 percent of all ads in House races in the election cycle to-date. Total broadcast ad spending cycle-to-date in House races is almost $220 million.

The top House races, ranked by the number of ad airings, are shown in Table 8.

Tables 9 and 10 show the top ten issues mentioned in ads in House and Senate races by party for both the full cycle to date (through August 25) and in the last two weeks. We combine all sponsors within party (e.g., Democratic candidates, Democratic party committees, and pro-Democratic groups). In the full cycle to date, pro-Democratic House ads have mentioned abortion in two of every five ad airings. Health care has appeared in nearly one in three airings. Pro-Democratic Senate ads, however, have focused far less on abortion and proportionately more on prescription drugs. Ads promoting Republicans in both House and Senate races have put immigration front and center in the campaign, when looking at airings across the full cycle to-date.

In the last two weeks, however, pro-GOP advisers have elevated discussion of the economy and inflation alongside a continued focus on immigration. Democratic efforts in House races have also seen a shift in focus, with public safety and immigration the top two issue mentions in recent weeks. Pro-Democratic Senate ads remain focused on prescription drugs and health care.

Spending on television ads can extend far down the ticket, as candidates for state, county, and local office sometimes make use of TV ads to reach overs. Ballot measures can also draw lots of spots. In Table 11, we show the top media markets for election-related television ads in the cycle to-date. Philadelphia tops the list with nearly 75,000 ad airings since January 2023—that’s about 630 hours of television time (or 26 continuous days of back-to-back ads). Among these spots, 32,000 have been about the presidential race, but over 9,000 have concerned the Senate race in Pennsylvania. Other top markets include Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Milwaukee, all featuring a mix of ads for the presidential race, as well as legislative and other statewide races.

Issue advocacy ads are excluded from the analysis, but broadcast ads for ballot measures, all federal races, statewide races and down ballot races are included in the numbers.
Figures are from January 1, 2023 to August 25, 2024.
CITE SOURCE OF DATA AS: Vivvix CMAG with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Table 12 shows the gubernatorial races with the most ads on broadcast television. Indiana tops the list, with over 70,000 spots and over $21 million in spending—all on the Republican side in advance of the party primary in early May. The campaign in North Carolina has cost more, $33.4 million, and featured a large proportion of outside group spending on behalf of the Democratic candidate. Over 50,000 ads aired in the West Virginia gubernatorial campaign, but all of them were on the GOP side and concerned the competitive primary for the party nomination, which was held on May 14.

Television ad totals reported here are from Vivvix CMAG and (unless otherwise specified) refer to broadcast television. All cost estimates for television are precisely that: estimates.

Meta spending data come from the aggregate reports, which provide spending information for each page name and disclaimer combination. Totals in this report reflect spending between January 1, 2023, July 22, 2024, and August 24, 2024. These totals are calculated by subtracting the reported cumulative spending (as reported by Facebook as the total spent since May 2018) for the August 24, 2022 report and subtracting the cumulative spending reported for January 1, 2023, and July 21, 2024.

Spending by Biden/Harris includes: spending on the Joe Biden page from Biden Victory Fund, DNC and Biden for President, Biden for President; spending on the Kamala HQ page from Biden Victory Fund and Harris Victory Fund; spending on the Kamala Harris page from Biden Victory Fund, DNC Services Corp., Harris for President and Harris Victory Fund; spending on the Tim Walz page by Harris Victory Fund; Biden for President spending on the Complex and The Daily Scroll pages, and Biden Victory Fund spending on the Democratic Party page. Spending by Trump includes: spending on the Donald J. Trump page by the Trump National Committee JFC, Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc., Trump 47 Committee, Inc., and Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee; Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee on the Team Trump page; Trump National Committee JFC and Trump 47 Committee, Inc. spending on the JD Vance page, and Trump National Committee JFC spending on Lara Trump’s page. Spending by supporting groups for Biden/Harris and Trump are listed in the table notes when they are used.

For Google ads, we downloaded the weekly reports from the platform’s Transparency Report. The totals reflected in this release are from the following time periods: January 1, 2023,  or July 21, 2024, and August 24, 2024.

Spending by Biden/Harris includes the Biden for President, Harris for President, DNC Services Corp when it appears with Biden or Harris for President, Biden Victory Fund, and Harris Victory Fund advertisers. Spending by Trump includes advertisers Donald J. Trump for President 2024, Inc., Trump Save America Joint Fundraising Committee, and Trump National Committee JFC. Spending by supporting groups for Biden/Harris and Trump are listed in the table notes when they are used.

The Wesleyan Media Project provides real-time tracking and analysis of all political television advertising in an effort to increase transparency in elections. Housed in Wesleyan’s Quantitative Analysis Center – part of the Allbritton Center for the Study of Public Life – the Wesleyan Media Project is the successor to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which disbanded in 2009.  It is directed by Erika Franklin Fowler, professor of government at Wesleyan University, Michael M. Franz, professor of government at Bowdoin College and Travis N. Ridout, professor of political science at Washington State University.WMP personnel include Breeze Floyd (Program Manager), Pavel Oleinikov (Associate Director, QAC), Yujin Kim (Post-Doctoral Fellow) and Meiqing Zhang (Post-Doctoral Fellow).

The Wesleyan Media Project’s real-time tracking in 2024 is supported by Wesleyan University and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation. The Wesleyan Media Project is partnering again this year with OpenSecrets, to provide added information on outside group disclosure and candidate status.

Periodic releases of data will be posted on the project’s website and dispersed via LinkedIn, Bluesky @wesmediaproject.bsky.social and Twitter @wesmediaproject. To be added to our email update list, click here.

For more information contact: Ziba Kashef at mkashef92@wesleyan.edu (please also cc media@wesleyan.edu).

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