Ad spending totals $700 million in the past two months, reaching $1.7 billion cycle-to-date

(MIDDLETOWN, CT) May 14, 2026 – Spending on campaign advertising in the 2025-2026 midterm election cycle in House, Senate and gubernatorial races has totaled $700 million in just the past two months, thanks, in part, to some extremely competitive primary campaigns (Table 1).  The totals for cycle-to-date spending (as of May 10th) are $1.7 billion. (For comparison, this total is more than double the spending over the same period in 2023-2024 though the specific gubernatorial and congressional races included in both years were different). Groups account for more than 60 percent of spending in federal contests so far and a little more than a third of gubernatorial spending across platforms.

At this point in the cycle, the plurality of that spending has been in races for governor, with $822 million spent on ads and much of that coming from candidate coffers.  These totals include the gubernatorial campaigns in New Jersey and Virginia in 2025.  By contrast, a much greater proportion of ad spending in Senate and House races has come from outside groups.  In the Senate, for example, $314 million of the $508 million in spending–almost 62 percent–has come from groups.

Table 1 also shows the breakdown of spending across media channels.  The plurality of spending is on broadcast television (42%).  Almost 30 percent of ad spending is on connected TV (including CTV devices and streaming apps on TVs), with 14 percent on digital platforms and 12 percent on local cable.  Although broadcast television accounts for the largest share of spending, its share of total spending continues to decline, down from 48 percent (for all ad spending in congressional and gubernatorial elections) during the same period in the 2023-24 election cycle.  CTV’s share is up from 24 percent in the previous election cycle.

Although Election Day is almost 6 months away, ad spending in the multi-candidate primary (on June 2) to lead California is approaching $250 million, topping the total spent on the 2025 gubernatorial race in New Jersey (Table 2).  Much of the California gubernatorial spending has come from candidate Tom Steyer, who has invested $154.3 million in ads this cycle.  Not only has Steyer accounted for the bulk of ad spending in that race, but his campaign has accounted for just over 9 percent of total ad spending in federal and gubernatorial races overall this cycle.

The closest candidate in the California race in terms of spending is Matt Mahan, San Jose’s mayor, with $7.19 million in ad spending.  Two groups have also invested heavily in the race:  California Back to Basics Supporting Matt Mahan for Governor, with $23.27 million in spending and CA is Not for Sale, an anti-Steyer group, with $22 million in spending.

The other race for governor with considerable spending is in Georgia, which has a primary election on May 19.  The campaign of Rick Jackson has spent $58.7 million to win the Republican nomination, while Burt Jones has spent $25.2 million in an effort to lead the Republican ticket.

Spending in the Michigan gubernatorial race, which has a primary on August 4, has seen over $38 million in spending so far with a lot of activity from Republicans vying for the nomination. Perry Johnson’s campaign has spent over $17.5 million compared to Aric Nesbitt’s $1.6 million and John James’ $1.1 million.  One outside group, Put Progress First, has spent nearly $12 million backing the Independent candidate, and former Detroit Mayor, Mike Duggan.

The most expensive House race this cycle, by far, is in Kentucky’s 4th congressional district where Rep. Tom Massie faces Trump-backed rival Ed Gallrein for the Republican nomination.  The primary is scheduled for May 19.  Massie has spent just over $5 million on advertising, while Gallrein has spent $1.2 million.  But the bulk of advertising in the race, 73 percent, is from outside groups.  This includes $4 million from the pro-Massie group, Kentucky 4th PAC, and $4.7 million from MAGA KY, a pro-Gallrein group. United Democracy Project and RJC Victory Fund have also each spent over $2 million in the race, with both groups opposing Massie. Illinois’ 9th congressional district also featured substantial spending on the Democratic side in the run-up to the primary election on March 17.

In anticipation of a competitive campaign in the fall, several outside groups have also invested heavily in Iowa’s first congressional district.  Spending to-date has approached $9 million, with nearly every ad sponsored by outside groups.  These include American Action Network, with $3 million promoting Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks, and $1.5 million from House Majority Forward attacking her.

In Maryland’s 6th district, which has a primary on June 23, ex-congressman David Trone has spent $6.6 million to best Democratic incumbent April McClain Delaney who has spent $1.5 million.

Spending on the Senate race in Texas continues to build as Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton battle for the Republican nomination in the May 26 runoff election.  Already, almost $150 million has been spent on advertising for the Senate race.  The top candidate spender was Democrat James Talerico, with $21.6 million in ad spending, followed by Democrat Jasmine Crockett, with $6.4 million in ad spending—with the bulk of that spending coming before the Democratic primary on March 3.  (Talerico has spent about $3.8 million between March 2 and May 10.)  Although the Cornyn and Paxton campaigns have spent relatively little by comparison (though both candidates have relied on coordinated victory funds to sponsor a lot of their advertising), they have been heavily supported by outside group spending.  For instance, Texans for Conservative Majority has spent over $30 million on ads attacking Cornyn’s opponents, and Lone Star Freedom Project has spent over $17 million in support of Cornyn.  Between March 2 and May 10, roughly right before the primary and into the run-off period, Texans for Conservative Majority spent over $7 million, but Lone Star Freedom Project has spent almost nothing.  All told, spending on behalf of Cornyn has dwarfed spending on behalf of Paxton.

The other Senate contests ranking second through fourth in spending so far are the open seat in Kentucky at $61.5 million (which has a primary on May 19), Illinois at nearly $58 million, and Maine at almost $51 million.  In seven of the top 10 most expensive races to-date, outside groups have accounted for a majority of the spending, including over three-quarters of the ad spending in Maine, much of which is in support or opposition of Republican incumbent Susan Collins.

Table 5 provides an update on the top spending groups since our last release. In addition to the top two Democratic-leaning groups active in the California gubernatorial contest, three Republican groups–One Nation, Americans for Prosperity, and American Action Network–have been active in races throughout the country. One Nation has spent nearly $12 million airing ads in seven states thanking existing senators for some of their policy efforts and attacking potential opponents. Americans for Prosperity Action has spent over $11 million on ads in Senate contests along with some digital ad spending in California’s 40th in support of Young Kim, and American Action Network has spent $8.6 million on a wide range of congressional districts across the country.

Advertising data reported here for 2025-2026 and 2023-2024 come from AdImpact with analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project. All cost estimates for ad spending by medium use AdImpact’s methodology.

The CTV category includes ads distributed over devices where an input is connected to a television (e.g., Apple TV, PlayStation, etc), streaming via set-top-boxes, including video on demand (e.g., Dish or XFINITY streaming) and in apps available on smart TVs (e.g., YouTube or the Hulu app, etc).

The Wesleyan Media Project provides real-time tracking and analysis of all political television advertising in an effort to increase transparency in elections. Housed in Wesleyan’s Hazel Quantitative Analysis Center – part of the Allbritton Center for the Study of Public Life – the Wesleyan Media Project is the successor to the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which disbanded in 2009.  It is directed by Erika Franklin Fowler, professor of government at Wesleyan University, Michael M. Franz, professor of government at Bowdoin College and Travis N. Ridout, professor of political science at Washington State University. WMP personnel include Breeze Floyd (Program Manager), Pavel Oleinikov (Associate Director, QAC) and Yujin Kim (Post-Doctoral Fellow).

The Wesleyan Media Project’s real-time tracking in 2026 is supported by Wesleyan University and the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation. The Wesleyan Media Project is partnering again this year with OpenSecrets, to provide added information on outside group disclosure and candidate status.

The Wesleyan Media Project’s digital advertising tracking is supported by the contributions of students in Delta Lab, an interdisciplinary research collaborative focusing on computationally-driven and innovative analyses and visualizations of media messaging. We are also grateful to our Coding Supervisors Saul Ferholt-Kahn and Helen Xie and the numerous student research assistants who facilitate additional content analysis of television and digital advertising.

Periodic releases of data will be posted on the project’s website and dispersed via LinkedIn, Bluesky @wesmediaproject.bsky.social and Twitter @wesmediaproject. To be added to our email update list, click here.

For more information contact: media@wesleyan.edu.

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